Collapses Ricardo Hausmann , Francisco Rodríguez ,
نویسندگان
چکیده
We study episodes where economic growth decelerates to negative rates. While the majority of these episodes are of short duration, a substantial fraction last for a longer period of time than can be explained as the result of business-cycle dynamics. The duration, depth and associated output loss of these episodes differs dramatically across regions. We investigate the factors associated with the entry of countries into these episodes as well as their duration. We find that while countries fall into crises for multiple reasons, including wars, export collapses, sudden stops and political transitions, most of these variables do not help predict the duration of crises episodes. In contrast, we find that a measure of the density of a country’s export product space is significantly associated with lower crisis duration. We also find that unconditional and conditional hazard rates are decreasing in time, a fact that is consistent with either strong shocks to fundamentals or with models of poverty traps. 1 We would like to thank Cameron Shelton, Sanjay Reddy, Eduardo Zambrano and seminar participants at Harvard University for their valuable comments and suggestions. Alejandro Izquierdo and Bailey Klinger kindly provided data used in this analysis. The usual disclaimer applies.
منابع مشابه
Comment on Hausmann and Rodrik
The paper by Ricardo Hausmann and Dani Rodrik constitutes a useful and enlightening application of the theoretical ideas proposed in two previous papers: ”Growth Diagnostics” (Hausmann, Rodrik and Velasco, 2004; henceforth HRV) and ”Economic Development as Self-Discovery ” (Hausmann and Rodrik, 2003). The comments in this note will center on three aspects of the paper under discussion: the theo...
متن کاملGrowth Collapses
We study episodes where economic growth decelerates to negative rates. While the majority of these episodes are of short duration, a substantial fraction last for a longer period of time than can be explained as the result of businesscycle dynamics. The duration, depth and associated output loss of these episodes differs dramatically across regions. We investigate the factors associated with th...
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تاریخ انتشار 2006